Votelopnik [politics by default I suppose]

"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn) 10/30/2020 at 10:15 • Filed to: votelopnik

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More than 9 million people have voted early in Texas, surpassing the entire turnout for the 2016 election. Today is the last day of early voting. Right now, the state, which has been reliably red in the past,  is pretty much a toss up, depending on which poll you look at.

facw > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 10:30

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538 is still giving Trump a 66% chance to win Texas, but it would be pretty amazing is he can be beat there. Of course if Trump loses, he will almost certainly lose in enough swing states for Texas not to matter, so the even more interesting race is for the Senate, though 538 only gives Cornyn a 14% chance of losing there.

hillrat > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 10:34

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Dropped off mine and my wife’s votes earlier this week . We live in DC, so our votes are mostly symbolic other than the school board and the DC council.

HammerheadFistpunch > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 10:38

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Its going to be an interesting few months.  

Milky > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 10:38

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You’r e already above 2016 turnout? T hat seems wild, for comparison I looked up Michigan. 2.5 mil right now vs 4.5mil for 2016, makes me worried that its not a good turnout for us.

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 10:38

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I wish the country was more diversified across the board. Its silly that there are ‘red’ and ‘blue’ states. I guess its a product of the ‘winner takes all’ method of voting that all but two states have. Just leads to very close minded thinking if everyone around you thinks exactly the same. I hate that I have to be categorized into one side or the other. I can be both strongly in favor of gun rights and the right for a woman to choose abortion. But with the way things are in this country I have to choose one or the other pretty much.

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 10:45

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Which state has the best national election voting stickers? Georgia has a pretty good one.

Milky > facw 10/30/2020 at 10:45

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I just went to that site for the first time. Man does it make me uncomfortable that Michigan is like 10 states down into the blue on their contested scale,  but Trump won here in 2016.

avalonian > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 10/30/2020 at 10:46

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Preach brother. I am not super into guns, but I might purchase my 1st one soon. But I respect people's right to have them, I also support women's rights and the fact that nobody should control what you do. And I am in Atlanta, Georgia. So you can only imagine the frustration we experience here.

SiennaMan > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 10/30/2020 at 10:46

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 I've long thought that this is also the problem with our primary system too.  Where I live, if you don't vote in the Republican primary,  you basically have no say in who represents you in the US House, the state house or state senate.  If all voters were selecting primary candidates,  either one per party or ranked choice voting,  it would discourage extremism in both parties and encourage more people in general to run for office..

Future next gen S2000 owner > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 10:50

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Given the record turnout of early voting and mail in ballots, how many people will actually vote on Tuesday? Seems in person turnout may be quite small. I’m secretly hoping in-person voting turns in record numbers as well. The more people vote the better.

facw > Milky 10/30/2020 at 10:55

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Even after corrections put in place after 2016, Biden is well ahead in the polling (and ahead of where Hillary was), so it’s looking good there.

And actually 538 (perhaps chastened by “getting it wrong” in 2016) is predicting Trump to do much better than other prognosticators. For the other end of the spectrum, see The Economist (not an especially liberal publication) which gives Biden a 95% of wining overall, and a 97% chance to win Michigan (they do give Trump a 76% chance at Texas) : https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

Important note: These predictions are not set in stone, if anyone wants to see Trump defeated, go vote and make it happen!

Thomas Donohue > Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available 10/30/2020 at 10:59

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I put mine in the drop box. There were no stickers.

I did get this cool ‘Loading’ GIF though, which I imagine will only get worse over the next few days with everyone checking the status of their mail-in ballot.

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > Thomas Donohue 10/30/2020 at 11:07

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Boo! Not fun!

Thomas Donohue > Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available 10/30/2020 at 11:08

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Better than waiting hours in line. In the rain.

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > Thomas Donohue 10/30/2020 at 11:12

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I went to a polling place on the very edge of the county that didn’t have any wait at all. 

fintail > facw 10/30/2020 at 11:19

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Mailed it in several days ago :)

fintail > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 10/30/2020 at 11:20

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Looking at some socio-economic/human development issues out there, I am surprised there aren’t more sharp divisions like that.  The country is a union of some very unlike areas.

3point8isgreat > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 11:25

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I was very pleased with the options and availability for early voting in texas.

Although the first place we went to was no longer a site, and had been moved just down the road. So the site listing polling locations wasn’t up to date. Also wish the locations were listed on a map.

But having the ability to choose which location you go to out of basically any in the county was neat. And they were open on the weekend! That weekend option was mind blowing to me. 

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 10/30/2020 at 11:28

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I have dreams of a push to get people to spread out across the country. So many of us “lazy socialists/ coastal elites ” bitching about how expensive and cramped it is here. Great - let’s find some of them places to go. I’m not saying this in a flippant “if you don’t like it, move!” sense but more so to truly help get people someplace they’d be happy, to spread the knowledge base around, and also yes - to see what difference it would make in the political landscape. Especially looking at a few sparsely populated red states (think Wyoming, Montana) it wouldn’t take too many Brooklyn hipsters with a lumberjack fantasy moving over to flip the script entirely.

I acknowledge that part of the current political frustration is caused by the feeling of being “left behind” - so this might help push new innovations and industry in these states, and also give people a better understanding for their fellow American, going both ways.

When we moved from SF to OR - yes one deep blue to another - I definitely noticed a huge difference. In SF you could drive for hours and still be in deep democratic territory. Here you drive 15 minutes outside Portland and it’s Trump signs all around. If anything it helps you acknowledge that those people exist, are real, and many of them you interact or work with on a daily basis. 

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > fintail 10/30/2020 at 11:30

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Yeah I guess if you compare it to a place like Europe, the US is very similar minded for its size in comparison. Something like trying to compare Poland to Germany would be a good example. They aren’t very far apart nor that large of areas compared to the US. But you would never be able to confuse the two for each other!

ttyymmnn > 3point8isgreat 10/30/2020 at 11:39

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We were in and out in about 5 minutes. The polling place was divided between two counties (Travis, Williamson). The Williamson line was pretty long because there was some sort of glitch that delayed opening. But all in all, it was a snap. 

Mid Engine > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 10/30/2020 at 11:40

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I’m an hour east of Seattle, everyone around me is Trump supporters.  I feel like a leper :)

Daily Drives a Dragon - One Last Lap > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 11:43

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I sent physical mail to my county elections office the first week of October to request my absentee ballot and while they said they sent it out on Monday, I still haven’t gotten it. It has to be postmarked by the 2nd so the chances of me voting are looking slim.

It’s almost like having a single office processing requests by hand isn’t a great idea. The same office runs early voting where you go, and they print you out an absentee ballot in front of the courthouse and then you vote with that there. Spoke to my dad and he waited in line for 3 hours for that. I hate this state. 

fintail > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 10/30/2020 at 11:49

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Europe is fun that way, drive two hours and be in a different world.  On this side of the pond, you might have to fly a couple hours for the same change.  That WA and AL are in the same union, or CA and SC etc is pretty amazing.

DipodomysDeserti > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 10/30/2020 at 11:57

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Yeah, make the rest of the country crowded and expensive by exporting miserable people . Sounds like a great plan.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 10/30/2020 at 12:33

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I admire the sentiment, but I don’t think it always works this way. You usually end up with a lot of resentment from the “locals” when new folks move in and want to change everything. It happened in my hometown when the surrounding counties got overpopulated, and people started to move to my county, took over all the farm land and turned it into suburbs.  Traffic got bad and schools got over crowded, etc. 

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > ttyymmnn 10/30/2020 at 13:11

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Yeah with Texas becoming a toss-up state, I would say that’s the biggest thing that says that Trump’s re-election campaign is in trouble.

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > facw 10/30/2020 at 13:36

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That’s m y optimistic (for me) t akeaway. If it can be that close in the historically red states, the swings will hopefully be full blue.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > DipodomysDeserti 10/30/2020 at 14:07

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Every place I’ve ever lived complains about this. Welcome to earth and reality. 

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > Snuze: Needs another Swede 10/30/2020 at 14:08

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This is the story of humanity. And whether intentionally done or not it happens everywhere.

If you look at the very young history of this country very few people actually have roots where they live. And beyond that, people can complain all they want - but there really isn’t much they can do about it other than to try to evolve (or move themselves). 

DipodomysDeserti > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 10/30/2020 at 14:12

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People who choose to live in crowded and miserab le places for money should be quarantined to such places. No need to export that mindset.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 10/30/2020 at 14:28

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I agree that this is probably isn’t entirely intentional, and believe that people have the freedom to move around. What bugs me more is when they jam in high density subdivision housing in previously rural areas, especially with no improvements to the roads, schools, etc. And by “ they” I mean when local governments approve it.

It seems to me that humans, while social creatures, don’t do as well in high densities. I wonder if there’s some optimum amount of land/space per person/family ? Before my old county got packed, I remember it was mostly a lot of smaller neighborhoods (say 10 to 20 houses) with each house sitting on roughly an acre of land. That always felt kind of nice - an acre is pretty manageable and allows for some spacing between houses. There were also farms interspersed throughout.

I now own a house in a DC suburb, with 0.2 acres (which is actually pretty big for this region) , and while it’s even less maintenance than my folks lot , I’m also a lot more cozy with my neighbors. One house is about 30 feet from mine, the other is about 10. I find myself wishing I had a bit more land so I could build a nice detached garage, which is why my dad is about to do. 

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > DipodomysDeserti 10/30/2020 at 16:12

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What export? Who is going to quarantine people? Are you still speaking of this land of the free? You can believe this garbage all you want - but this is the reality of the human species. We move around for opportunity, and then we move some more as our needs and desires change. On one hand we shit on people for not expanding their horizons to make their lives better, and on the other we shit on them for encroaching on our space. In your world people should only improve their lives exactly where they were born? As an immigrant from the opposite end of the world I find this ridiculous. And completely against what this country claims to be about. 

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > Snuze: Needs another Swede 10/30/2020 at 16:24

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I’m glad you caught yourself on your usage of “they”. I find it humorous when people go “well they should do XYZ”...and I think who is this they you speak of??? We for the most part live in a democracy where we elect our leaders who make decisions on how our communities are run. There aren’t rules about who can move where, and how much space they can occupy. If you can afford it, and are complying with the existing rules, and are respectful of the locals, then go for it is my thinking . Much of this country was settled in the very, very recent past - and in many cases by not very moral means - so now, for us to be talking crap about others who move to other areas based on the rules we ourselves have established is a joke to me.

On the topic of space - yeah I grew up in another country too, and remember it being way more pleasant and less crowded than it is now (where it is perpetually a traffic jam). Whenever I visit I just run to the countryside. With that being said population density here in the US is much lower compared to most inhabited places on earth. So again to me it’s a complaint of privilege when people say they’re running out of space. Even if that’s the case, then do something about it in your local laws.

We live in Oregon with 0.25 acres - for various reasons we too find ourselves wishing for more land. But that typically means giving up on many of the other things we do cherish and need (medical care, job market, conveniences). Personally I see no issue with more of these things existing in more places in the country thereby allowing people more mobility, choice, and a better quality of life, including for the people who are already there. Note I’m also saying this with the experience of my in-laws who live in a very, very rural part of this country. They get iced over in winter, the nearest hospital is over an hour away in good weather, and the local economy is dying. Young people moving away in search of better opportunity. For many people on both ends of the spectrum spreading more of our economic activity more broadly could be of benefit - which again comes back to my initial point. There’s often a disconnect what individual people (whose lives are great) may want, and what’s best for society as a whole both at a local level and more broadly.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 10/30/2020 at 16:35

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Good points on all fronts.

Re. the usage of they - my coworker in the next cube over is an interesting character , and often whispers over the wall about what “they” are up to. It’s kind of amusing s ometimes to listen to his crackpot bullshit to try to suss out which “they” he’s referring to. Who is it today? Management? Q-anon? The Republicans? The Democrats? His neighbors? etc. It at least helps the day go by faster.  

DipodomysDeserti > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 10/30/2020 at 16:45

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Yeah, I recognize that it is not a popular opinion. I was fortunate enough to be born in a place that I love, and would resist leaving at all costs. Just listened to a lecture from a native American elder who was also born here, and the appreciation that they’ve built up for the land over the last few millennia is not something that most people arriving in the last several hundred years share. I identify more with them than people I share a common ancestry with.

This country claims to be about a lot of things, and they’re mostly bullshit. Welcome aboard!